Predicting year-end recovery to 56% above 2020 figures

83% above 2021 figures and 75% of 2019 figures

Average transaction value 13% higher than 2019

Full recovery to 2019 figures forecast for period April 2024 ― March 2025.

The Advantage Travel Partnership has published the third edition of its Global Business Travel Review, with a look at how the travel landscape has shaped up during July, August and September 2022, and the year to date, with important sector updates across the global travel ecosystem – from the world of hotels, accommodation, and ground transport, through to rail and aviation. The review is published in collaboration with travel technology and data analyst specialist company, Travelogix.

The report’s data is based on the analysis of 13.7m records, going back to 01 January 2019 and through to 30 September 2022, with an aggregate value of £7.4bn in transactional revenue.

Interesting findings reveal:

• For new transactions, April 2022 saw a 38.94% increase in booking traffic versus March 2022, and then tailed off by 11.4% in May 2022. The flux has been quite stable since and notably missing is a return to traditional seasonality.
• The average transaction value of 2022, year to date, is £333.32, 12.41% higher than the average value in 2019.
• Trip duration has exceeded 2019 averages: 2022 to date, is sitting at
  6.71 days whereas 2019 yielded an average of 4.57 days. Travellers are going away for longer, which unlocks a huge opportunity for TMCs when talking about ancillaries and a more considered approach regarding duty of care. The reasons for the longer trips fit with corporate programmes’ desire to travel more ‘purposeful’, a trend covered in the review.
• Booking horizons in 2019 averaged 23.37 days whereas in 2022, to date, the average has reduced to 21.11 days.
• Refunds have been an issue for TMCs and in Q3 were still at 1 in 85.72 bookings being refunded, a drop, however, from Q1’s 1 in 48.65 but judging by October’s refund stats the situation is settling.

The full Advantage Travel Partnership Global Business Travel Review 3.0 can be viewed here https://bit.ly/GlobalBTReview3.

Guy Snelgar, global business travel director, The Advantage Travel Partnership said: “The data in the Global Business Travel Review 3.0 gives fascinating detail and context to the feedback we hear from Advantage members around the return to travel and the evolving behaviour of companies and their business travellers.

“Looking at the business travel industry over the past last six months it has been a story of recovery and growth, despite considerable ongoing disruption and capacity challenges. Based on our modelling, we predict that the industry will recover to 55.18% above 2020 figures, 82.24% above 2021 figures and 74.05% of 2019 figures. Whilst we are confident that travel demand will yield great volumes in 2023, an increase in airline capacity and scheduling will be key to the recovery of pre-pandemic numbers. With that in mind, we maintain our original forecast of full recovery to 2019 figures for a full 12-month period in April 2024 ― March 2025.”

Chris Lewis, founder and CEO, Travelogix said: “Data is crucial to understanding the trajectory of recovery in the business travel industry.

“Whilst the summer demonstrated no real clear signs of standard seasonality, there were glimmers of a recovering industry that we cannot ignore, even when factoring in the UK’s economic woes, geopolitical unrest and, of course, the capacity and scheduling restrictions we are seeing in the aviation space. As an industry, we are around 25% away from reaching the transaction volumes we saw back in 2019, which shows just how far we have come. We’re robust in nature and strong in character.”

The Global Business Travel Review 3.00, which is the largest published yet, also contains insight from industry leaders including GBTA’s Catherine Logan; IATA’s Simon McNamara and Advantage’s CEO Julia Lo Bue- Said. Elkie Nicholas, co-founder & Yogini at Trees4Travel addresses sustainability in business travel. In addition, detailed sector commentary is provided in the ground transport, rail, hotels, and meetings & events sectors.

Advantage Global Network’s John Hobbs-Hurrell looks at the global business travel landscape, with updates from global partners including representatives in these countries:-

• USA, where the sentiment is positive, with trading for August and September ranging from 85 – 90% of the same months in 2019, although the revenue comparison was 72%
• Kenya is currently trading at 60-70% on 2019 figures with a growth in intra-Africa travel.
• India reported that the corporate travel market started to see a steady increase after February 2022 but was held back by a lack of flights, which are yet to reach pre-covid levels. Visa issues have also caused a recovery setback.
• Australia reported brisk corporate travel with positive signs of international travel becoming relevant again, however, obstacles are very high fares for both international and domestic travel, caused by limited availability

The next Advantage Travel Partnership Global Business Travel Review, edition 4.0, with data for the full year will be published in 2023.

For reference, the 2.0 review can be accessed in full here. And the first report published in April 2022  here.

For further media information about Advantage Travel Partnership please contact [email protected]